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Space
2015-06-05 12:23:05

Opinion: asteroid explosion in 2017 will be 10 times more powerful than in Chelyabinsk

For another two and a half years, nothing will threaten Earth from space. The nearest dangerous approach to an asteroid will occur by the 100th anniversary of the October Revolution, in October 2017. The creation of a system of protection against asteroids is quite realistic, the expert Anatoly Zaitsev is sure.

The press is widely discussing the sensational prediction of the astronomer from the University of Texas Judith Gyorgy-Reese. According to her calculations, the asteroid 2012ТС4, which on October 12, 2017 will approach our planet at close range, hypothetically, may collide with the Earth.

Strictly speaking, this prediction is not a sensation. A long-term prediction of the Russian EMERCOM, published in March of this year, stated that there are 11 predicted asteroids approaching the Earth before 2050 at distances smaller than the average radius of the Moon's orbit. The closest approach, as stated in the forecast, will be on October 12, 2017 with the asteroid 2012ТС4. It is assumed that it will pass at a distance of 115 thousand kilometres from Earth - about a third of the radius of the lunar orbit.

Theoretically, we can not exclude the fact that for some reason the asteroid will approach the Earth at a shorter distance. However, the European Space Agency, for example, estimates the chances of collision as "one in a million".

The only news in the report from the University of Texas scientist is the size of the asteroid. György-Ries disputed the accepted estimate of the diameter of 2012TS4 at 17 metres and estimates it to be around 40 metres.

If this estimate is correct, then it turns out that the asteroid is about twice the diameter of the famous Chelyabinsk meteorite. This significantly changes the calculation of the possible damage if 2012TS4 enters the Earth's atmosphere, says Anatoly Zaitsev, director general of NP Center for Planetary Protection.

"This means that it will be about 10 times greater in mass than the Chelyabinsk meteorite. Accordingly, if the Chelyabinsk one had an explosion power of about half a megaton, here the explosion power will be about 5 megatons in TNT equivalent. It is a very serious power. The Tunguska meteorite had about the same characteristics. Then the affected area in the Siberian taiga was about 2 thousand square kilometres - the approximate area of Moscow," said Anatoly Zaitsev on radio Sputnik.

In any case, said the expert, one should not fear the asteroids which trajectories can be accurately calculated in advance. Unknown or poorly studied celestial bodies pose a danger. Especially if they unexpectedly approach our planet from its daytime side - like the famous Chelyabinsk meteorite.

"The main problem is that there is still no effective detection system. This asteroid flew from the daytime side of the planet, and astronomers can't observe effectively during the day. To detect such objects, you need a space-based observation segment - a space telescope, or better two. But that's not available yet. On the night side of the planet, ground-based observatories work, and work efficiently. They can detect even such unexpectedly approaching potentially dangerous objects many hours before they re-enter the atmosphere. And it is possible to warn the population in advance. From the daytime side of the planet, however, detecting approaching space objects is not easy. We need to create a comprehensive protection system. The existing technologies allow to create it, both space telescopes and spacecraft interceptors," said Anatoly Zaitsev.

According to the expert, a planetary defense system can be created in quite a short time. The only question is the political will.

"We need political will not of one single country, but at least a number of leading countries of the world. We have already made a report on this subject to the UN Outer Space Committee. It all seems to be perceived ... but you yourself understand what the leaders of leading countries have been doing lately. And there is no way without joining efforts here," concluded Anatoly Zaitsev.



Челябинск
2017




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