A new report by the Club of Rome and Earth4All experts predicts that the global population will peak before 2050, and then begin to decline, reaching no more than six to seven billion people in 2100.
Not so long ago the number of people on the planet passed the eight billion mark. The UN predicts that in the second half of the twenty-first century it will reach ten billion and stabilize at that level. Another analysis, published in 2020 in The Lancet, promises a decline in population after reaching a maximum of 9.7 billion. However, the new report of the Club of Rome experts predict a much more moderate growth, which will already change to a decline by 2050. Various scenarios promise a reduction of the global population to six to seven billion people in 2100.
The Club of Rome, founded in 1968, brings together scientists and analysts, prominent politicians, businessmen, and cultural figures. They regularly issue extensive reviews of global problems and the prospects of humanity. For example, the famous report "The Limits to Growth," published in 1972, pointed to the threat of the exhaustion of natural resources associated with the exponential economic and demographic growth of our civilization.
The new report was prepared by Earth4All, a group of experts organized by the Club of Rome together with a number of European universities and think tanks. It uses mathematical modeling to describe two plausible scenarios of demographic change before the end of the 21st century.
The first scenario, called "Too Little, Too Late", assumes that the current trends in economic development will continue. It predicts that in this case the global population will continue to grow until 2050, although not at the same rate. It would then peak at 8.6 billion people, after which it would begin to decline, falling to seven billion by 2100.
The second option, the "Big Leap," assumes that in the next decades humanity's development will accelerate thanks to new computer, medical and educational technologies. Then its number will peak (about 8.5 billion) around 2040, and then decline to six billion in 2100.
The realization of one or another scenario will depend above all on changes in the poor countries of Asia and Africa, which today have the largest population growth. The sooner they approach the global economic level, the sooner the world's population will reach its peak and begin to decline. Key factors in this transition are the availability of education and work for women, the spread of modern contraceptives and medicine.
