Scientists at Rutgers University: the use of nuclear weapons will lead to climate change.
Scientists at Rutgers University, the National Center for Atmospheric Research and other US research centres have predicted that the large-scale use of nuclear weapons on Earth would not only cause millions of deaths but also lead to long-term climate change for up to 15 years. This is reported in an article published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres.
The use of nuclear weapons against major cities and industrial centres is thought to cause catastrophic fires and soot emissions that could lead to a so-called nuclear winter. However, in the new work, scientists used a modern climate model including aerosol and nitrogen oxide emissions for the first time to reveal the effects of nuclear war on ozone and the amount of ultraviolet light reaching the surface. The effects of both local nuclear conflict and world war were assessed.
The scientists found that nuclear weapons could permanently destroy the protective ozone layer, resulting in several years of extremely high ultraviolet radiation, which in turn would endanger human health and damage food supplies. For instance, in the case of a regional nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan, five megatons of soot would be generated and the intensity of the ultraviolet radiation would increase within a year. In the case of a conflict between Russia and the USA, 150 megatons would be produced and the intensity of UV radiation would increase in eight years when the atmosphere becomes more transparent.
Due to global nuclear war, stratospheric heating and other factors would cause the ozone layer to shrink for 15 years, with a peak loss of 75 per cent globally and 65 per cent in tropical regions. In the case of a regional nuclear war, the ozone content would be reduced by 25 per cent and recovery would take 12 years.
Scientists say the results indicate that the effects of a nuclear war would be worse than previously thought. The increased intensity of ultraviolet radiation would increase the frequency of mutations in DNA, which would negatively affect agriculture and increase the incidence of cancer and cataracts in humans and animals.
